Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 Presidential race and has endorsed Vice President Harris as the Democratic nominee. She has secured enough delegates to become the Democratic nominee, but can she really defeat Donald Trump?
There are a number of factors that will play into the election, so let's go through them one at a time.
#1 - Democrat Voters Chose Biden
While Kamala Harris has secured enough voters to become the nominee, her own base has to live with the fact that she was not the person they selected in the primaries. She is not a popular choice amongst Democrats, let alone Republicans. She ran against Biden in 2020 and was demolished. Then Democrat and now Republican Tusli Gabbard seemingly ended the Harris campaign with some major blows during a Democratic presidential debate.
Kamala Harris was not the democratic choice. Joe Biden was.
#2 - The World is in Ruins
The Biden administration has been nothing short of a disaster over the course of the last three-and-a-half years. Yes, Kamala Harris is not Joe Biden, but she was actively involved in the decision-making process over that period of time.
Domestically, Americans on separate sides of the aisle hate each other more than ever. Research from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suggests that, while normal Americans are not politically polarized as much as we think they are, politicians are politically polarized and Americans are growing emotionally polarized towards the opposite side of the aisle despite the exaggerated political polarization. This means that Americans on opposite sides of the aisle have an ever-growing hatred of one another regardless of how much they disagree on.
This explains the increasing amount of political violence and propaganda in regards to differing lifestyles within the United States. Politicians are riling up the population for a political war that they really don't want. They didn't ask for January 6th. They didn't ask for the June 2020 riots following the murder of George Floyd. They didn't ask for Donald Trump's assassination attempt. Yet, because of their aggression towards each other, they have set an example for the entire country that this sort of violence is allowable.
The Biden Administration is no exception to this. During Barack Obama's campaign for reelection in 2012, Joe Biden famously claimed, in regards to African American citizens, that Mitt Romney would "put you all back in chains." He's constantly taken every swing he can at the other side of the aisle, and it has only increased the violence. Kamala Harris will be stapled to this violence and will be judged based on its effect on America over the last few years.
The economy is also in a bad state. In 2022, we had two consecutive quarters without GDP growth. That, ladies and gentlemen, is the definition of a recession. This was the last thing we needed two years after a major pandemic hit the United States. On top of that, prices on food increased by 24% over the last four years. Wages have only increased by 16%, which is not keeping up with prices at all. We had just gotten everything back to normal and the Biden Administration caused economic downturn with all this inflation.
Donald Trump's track record on the economy was phenomenal. Yes, he had a recession due to the pandemic, but he responded with the highest amount of growth we have seen in one quarter in a long time, maybe the most ever. Additionally, food prices under Trump only increased by 5% as wages increased by almost 13%. Purchasing power more than doubled under the Trump Administration, while the Biden Administration has cut purchasing power by 33%. We completely recovered economically thanks to President Trump. We lost that recovery under President Biden. Vice President Harris is also tied to that record.
Internationally, all hell is breaking loose. The terrorists are back after Joe Biden completely pulled U.S. troops out of Afghanistan and left vital American equipment behind. Russia has invaded Ukraine on Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's watches. Israel was violently attacked and is now in a major war with Palestine. The world was at peace when Donald Trump left office. Now, it's crumbling to peaces and World War III is around the corner. This is not good. All of this is thanks to President Biden and Vice President Harris.
This is Kamala Harris's track record...a disaster. It will be very difficult for her to take over as nominee with this much baggage already.
#2 - Kamala Harris is WAY Behind in the Polls
According to FiveThirtyEight polling data, Donald Trump is up by 3% nationally on Kamala Harris, but that is just the national popular vote. Here is where they stand in major swing states.
Arizona - Trump is up by 4%
Florida - Trump is up by almost 9%
Georgia - Trump is up by 6%
Michigan - Trump is up by 2%
Nevada - Trump is up by almost 6%
North Carolina - Trump is up by almost 7%
Ohio - Trump is up by 9%
Pennsylvania - Trump is up by 4%
Virginia - No consensus since Biden dropped out (the latest poll had Trump up 4%)
Wisconsin - Trump is up by 2%
Trump isn't just winning in most of the major swing states, Trump is winning in all of them. Harris is just now launching a political campaign and she is losing big time. This doesn't look good for her.
#3 - States are Changing Their Laws
With Georgia passing stricter voter identification laws in reaction to the results of the 2020 election, Kamala Harris will have to fight even harder for that state. Similar laws exist in the state of Arizona, another state that flipped to the Democrats in 2020.
It will not be easy for Kamala Harris to win if all of the illegal immigrants inside of her base are barred from voting because they are not citizens. This gives Donald Trump an edge that will be hard to overcome.
#4 - Trump is More Popular than Ever Before
For everyone who is somehow unaware, former president Trump was nearly assassinated a couple weeks ago. The shooter came within inches of taking out the former president. Instead of running, Donald Trump raised his fist in pride after surviving the assassination attempt, encouraging his base to "fight."
From this, Donald Trump and the entire right-wing has gained popularity. The left-wing political figures of the country are being handed a mask of violence as their persistent labels of Donald Trump have sparked just that. The American people are outraged that politics have once again come to such a horrific state, and that will have a lasting impact.
#5 - Trump's Legal Battle Continues
For all those who continue to call former president Trump a convicted felon, you might want to hold your horses on that one. Recently, Trump's conviction has been picked up by a New York appeals court. Trump's lawyers are working around the clock to get the case overturned. If he succeeds, it will be another loss for the left-wing media and the Democratic support will start to disappear.
Ultimately, this election boils down to the state of the country and who voters trust more. The last eight years have given us enough to go off of.
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