We can all remember the greats that we watched when we were children. From the originals Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar; to Magic Johnson and Larry Bird who popularized the sport; to Michael Jordan who took the game to new heights; to Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, and LeBron James who carried forth his legacy; to Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic, who changed the game forever. One thing they all had in common, they were all champions.
Though we count their rings in comparison with one another, it's always the first ring that makes them legendary. That's what makes the NBA Finals so great. This week, another legendary figure will be added to that list. They will no longer be just all-stars, just great players, just NBA players. Success in winning championships is what makes you great.
The two teams that are contending for greatness this year are the Boston Celtics (64-18, 12-2 in the playoffs) and the Dallas Mavericks (50-32, 12-5 in the playoffs).
The Boston Celtics
The Celtics were the best team in the NBA this year and are led by all-stars Jayson Tatum (26.0 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 5.9 apg) and Jaylen Brown (25.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.6 apg). This is their second appearance in the NBA Finals in the last three years. They have been on the hunt for a championship, coming one game short of an NBA Finals appearance last year.
This offseason, Brad Stevens added two key pieces in former all-star and NBA champion point guard Jrue Holiday (12.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.6 apg) and former all-star center Kristaps Porzingis (12.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.8 apg), the latter of whom played for the Dallas Mavericks a few years ago. Invaluable to the Celtics has been the shooting and playmaking of starting shooting guard Derrick White (17.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.6 apg) and the experience and physicality of former all-star big man Al Horford (9.9 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.9 apg).
Coach Joe Mazzulla was an assistant under Ime Udoka when the Celtics made the Finals two years ago, but he has kept up the success and led this team to back-to-back first-place finishes in the Eastern Conference and another appearance in the NBA Finals.
The Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks came out victorious over a loaded Western Conference field. Superstar Luka Doncic (28.8 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 8.8 apg) is leading the playoffs in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals, and three pointers made. Luka's popularity will more than likely have fans cheering on the Mavericks. Luka is joined in the backcourt by former all-star, NBA champion, and Celtic point guard Kyrie Irving (22.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 5.2 apg). An Irving and Doncic one two punch in the backcourt will be hard to deal with by anyone, even the Celtics.
Up front, the Mavericks have had outstanding production from P.J. Washington (13.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.4 apg). He has stepped up and taken on big names like Chet Holmgren, Rudy Gobert, and Karl-Anthony Towns. Daniel Gafford (9.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 0.8 apg) gives them some height up from and wing Derrick Jones Jr. (9.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.4 apg) has made significant productions off the bench. If there is a weakness to either team in this series, it's that this team really isn't as deep as the Celtics.
Jason Kidd, former Mavericks all-star point guard who helped them win their first championship in 2011, has put them back in the finals as head coach, and is seeking his third NBA title. Kidd won his second NBA championship as an assistant to Frank Vogel with the Los Angeles Lakers. Two years ago, Kidd had the Mavericks in a position to possible face the Celtics for the title, but they ran into the Golden State Warriors and we all know how that team plays when at their best. Now Kidd's Mavericks are back for redemption against the same team they would have faced two years ago.
Keys to the Series
#1 - Field Goal Percentage
We've seen this be the deciding factor time and time again this postseason. Who will make the shots? We know Luka Doncic will, but it can't just be Luka all the time. However, Kyrie Irving has been shooting 42% from downtown this postseason and both Derrick Jones Jr. and P.J. Washington have shot over 35% from three in the playoffs, so the Mavericks have some legitimate shooters around Doncic. Daniel Gafford is shooting 61% from the field and Dereck Lively II has been shooting 66% from the field off the bench. They will be a spread out team with multiple scoring options surrounding Doncic.
The Celtics have a variety of shotmakers both in the starting lineup and off the bench. Brown, Tatum, Horford, and White have been making shots in Celtic uniforms for years. Porzingis has always been a finisher inside and Jrue Holiday has a knack for getting to the rim and finishing in major spots. Behind them, Payton Pritchard is shooting 45% for the postseason from three and Luke Kornet is shooting 68% from the the field. They can hurt you from so many angles that it will be hard to stop.
#2 - Rebounding
This has been the main facet of any winning team this postseason. Rebounding has been the deciding factor in nearly every series, and I don't see that changing in the Finals. The Celtics have been the best defensive rebounding team throughout the regular season and the playoffs. Porzingis, Horford, and Tatum secure most defensive boards in order to create transition opportunities and limit offensive opportunities for opponents. It's a strategy that has stifled even the best shooting teams, like the Indiana Pacers in the previous round.
Luka Doncic has led the playoffs in total rebounding, so you have to worry about boxing him out. The Mavericks have relied on offensive rebounding and second chances, but with the Celtics securing every rebound, the Mavericks may have to shoot better from the field than they already do. Look for Gafford, Lively, Doncic, and Washington to fight for every offensive board they can.
#3 - Matchups
Here how I would do the matchups:
Celtics Defense:
Holiday on Irving - You have the perfect person to shut down Irving. Expect Holiday to be big in this series.
Brown on Doncic - I expect Brown to use his athleticism to lock down Doncic.
White on Jones - White is giving up some size to a Dunk Contest champ, but Jones will be more on the perimeter with Doncic handling the ball.
Tatum on Washington - Tatum is the only Celtic guard big enough to matchup with Washington.
Porzingis/Horford on Gafford - Big on Big
Mavericks Defense:
Irving on Holiday - PG on PG.
Doncic on Tatum - Doncic is leading the playoffs in steals, so I would expect him to try and shut down Tatum.
Jones on White - Jones is a wing that's quick enough to stay in front of White and stay with him when he tries to slip away for a three.
Washington on Brown - You need someone athletic to guard Brown. You may need to bring Tim Hardaway Jr. off the bench or switch Washington to Derrick White if needed, but I think Washington can guard him.
Gafford on Porzingis/Horford - Big on Big.
Overall, the main focal point will be the production level of Kyrie Irving with Holiday on him. We've seen Jrue Holiday defend Chris Paul in the Finals before and he just got done shutting down Tyrese Haliburton, so it won't be too hard for him to shut down Kyrie Irving.
On top of that, I can see a number of reasons why Dallas might have trouble rebounding. I don't think that Gafford can play with Porzingis and I don't think that Lively could handle Horford. If the Celtics take advantage of these matchups, they could get every board. Plus, Tatum could take some rebounds away from Washington and Doncic will have a harder time getting to balls if he's busy with Tatum and Brown on the perimeter.
#4 - Depth
The Celtics bench is shooting way better than the Mavericks bench is. Payton Pritchard and Luke Kornet are both shooting extremely well this postseason. On top of the fact that Boston has two centers who can start interchangeably, that is the depth of a team designed to win a championship team.
The Mavericks have a decent amount of depth with Max Kleber, Dereck Lively II, and Tim Hardaway Jr, but Kleber and Hardaway are not playing at the level that they were two years ago.
Prediction
As much as I know everyone is rooting for Doncic to get his first title, and as much as the Mavericks are banking on Luka getting his first title with Luka's criticisms of the organization, sometimes one must lose a championship in order to win multiples. We saw this with Larry Bird, Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and Kevin Durant. I know that Luka's a fan favorite that deserves an NBA title, I really do know that. I also know that the Mavericks don't want him to demand a trade when they are on the brink of finally getting him that championship.
Unfortunately, everything is telling me that the Boston Celtics' frustrations will finally be put to rest at the end of this series. Jrue Holiday is a winner and the Jayson Tatum has been a quiet superstar since the Celtics stole him from the 76ers in 2017. That draft will go down in history as the theft of the decade (maybe even the theft of the Century). Although, the Mavericks will make Boston earn it with their incredible size and firepower in the backcourt.
We'll see how this plays out. It should be a great series.
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